{"id":2960,"date":"2024-05-31T12:26:48","date_gmt":"2024-05-31T12:26:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/?p=2960"},"modified":"2024-07-03T19:00:53","modified_gmt":"2024-07-03T19:00:53","slug":"recession-predictions-vs-economists-the-media","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/recession-predictions-vs-economists-the-media\/","title":{"rendered":"Recession Predictions vs Economists &#038; the Media"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote><p>&#8220;Economists predicted 9 of the last 4 recessions.&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>People often get obsessed with predictions and live in continuous fear of a market collapse.<\/p>\n<p>This is my attempt to convince you that uncertainty is normal.<\/p>\n<p>As someone that strategically invests since 2017, I know how to filter out the noise and sleep comfortably with a 7 figure portfolio.<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_60 ez-toc-wrap-center counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-white ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title \" >Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\" role=\"button\"><label for=\"item-668bb731b2d4f\" ><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input aria-label=\"Toggle\" aria-label=\"item-668bb731b2d4f\"  type=\"checkbox\" id=\"item-668bb731b2d4f\"><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/recession-predictions-vs-economists-the-media\/#Recession_Predictions\" title=\"Recession Predictions\">Recession Predictions<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/recession-predictions-vs-economists-the-media\/#Track_Record_Bias\" title=\"Track Record Bias\">Track Record Bias<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/recession-predictions-vs-economists-the-media\/#What_Should_You_Do\" title=\"What Should You Do?\">What Should You Do?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/recession-predictions-vs-economists-the-media\/#What_If_Theyre_Right\" title=\"What If They\u2019re Right?\">What If They\u2019re Right?<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Recession_Predictions\"><\/span>Recession Predictions<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>So where do we stand today? All the indicators are there \u2013 we\u2019re crashing through ATHs, the 2\/10 yield curve inverted, the S&amp;P\u2019s P\/E and CAPE ratios are well above their historical means, rate cuts are overdue, etc., etc., etc.<\/p>\n<p>So one question remains:<\/p>\n<p>Will there be a global recession?<\/p>\n<p>And the answer is:<\/p>\n<p><strong>Yes.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>But what\u2019s the information that this answer gave us? Without a time frame, it\u2019s practically 0.<\/p>\n<p><strong>We\u2019re always headed for a recession.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>So what about the question: will there be a recession in 2025?<\/p>\n<p>Nobody can answer that with 100% certainty (i.e. with their full net-worth backing up their claims).<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Track_Record_Bias\"><\/span>Track Record Bias<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>What about people that successfully predicted a crash in the past?<\/p>\n<p>Great job! Predicting a downturn and profiting off of it is nothing short of impressive. <a href=\"https:\/\/dpetkovski.com\/tales-from-the-last-cycle-exit-crypto-in-profit\">I&#8217;ve done it as well<\/a>. But <em>past performance doesn&#8217;t guarantee future results<\/em>. Michael Burry got a movie about his <a href=\"https:\/\/www.imdb.com\/title\/tt1596363\/\">big short<\/a> in 2007 but <a href=\"https:\/\/www.marketwatch.com\/story\/michael-burry-of-big-short-fame-says-he-was-wrong-to-tell-investors-to-sell-d1259c0f\">he got it wrong<\/a> in 2023.<\/p>\n<p>Anyway, whenever someone predicts a collapse, check if they really called it or were they saying it for 5 years before it happened?<\/p>\n<p><em>&#8220;Economists predicted 9 of the last 4 recessions.&#8221;,\u00a0<\/em>remember?<\/p>\n<p>And the interesting part is that they&#8217;ll be right.<\/p>\n<p>Whoever calls for a recession continuously will eventually be right. The cyclical nature of the economy is a fact.<\/p>\n<p>However, if someone is confident in his forecasts, check if they&#8217;re shorting the market with size instead of barking from the sidelines. People that don&#8217;t put their money where their mouth is should be at least ignored and ideally ridiculed.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_Should_You_Do\"><\/span>What Should You Do?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>That heavily depends on your goals, risk tolerance, time horizon, etc. You can <a href=\"https:\/\/dpetkovski.com\/dca-dollar-cost-averaging-investment-strategy-explained\">DCA and chill<\/a> or try to outsmart the market.<\/p>\n<p>But if you ever catch yourself thinking \u201c<em>I&#8217;ll sell and reenter after the doom<\/em>\u201d, be ready for the risk of multi-generational sidelining.<\/p>\n<p>A comment from this <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reddit.com\/r\/personalfinance\/comments\/cqjo30\/stop_freaking_out_about_the_recession\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Reddit thread<\/a> summarizes this very well:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p class=\"_1qeIAgB0cPwnLhDF9XSiJM\">I sold all my stocks so that I have more money to buy stocks when the recession hits. That was in 2015.<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1qeIAgB0cPwnLhDF9XSiJM\">I only need the stock market to drop by ~33% so I can buy in exactly where I was four years ago. I know that if I hold out I won\u2019t lose money in the long run. Right?<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>And he said this in 2019. Now we&#8217;re up ~100% since then.<\/p>\n<p>If you&#8217;re a beginner, you&#8217;ll eventually learn that reading headlines will always make it seem like the world is collapsing next year.<\/p>\n<p>If definitely seemed like a recession was due back in December 2018:<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-2963\" src=\"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/sp500-oct-dec.png\" alt=\"recession\" width=\"1311\" height=\"490\" \/><\/p>\n<p>And this is what followed throughout 2019.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-2964\" src=\"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/sp500-2019.png\" alt=\"sp500-2019\" width=\"1311\" height=\"490\" \/><\/p>\n<p>You should always remember <a href=\"https:\/\/dpetkovski.com\/why-the-stock-market-always-goes-up\/\">why the market goes up<\/a> and never underestimate the ability of central banks to <a href=\"https:\/\/dpetkovski.com\/how-the-money-printer-makes-you-poor\">keep the economy on life support<\/a> for a decade.<\/p>\n<p>But the section title asked \u201c<em>what to do?<\/em>\u201d \u2013 let me summarize what I think is best protection against economic downturn:<\/p>\n<p><strong>Live within your means.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Both in good and in bad times.<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s a hedge against everything and always.<\/p>\n<p>And in regards to your long-term investing strategy \u2013 stay the course. You can reevaluate what you\u2019re doing as you acquire knowledge and <a href=\"https:\/\/dpetkovski.com\/rebalancing-managing-your-investment-portfolio\/\">rebalance<\/a> your <a href=\"https:\/\/dpetkovski.com\/asset-allocation-finding-your-ideal-distribution\/\">allocation<\/a>, but make sure not to do it motivated by panic or FOMO.<\/p>\n<p>Because the most likely moment you&#8217;ll have these thoughts is when the prices hit the bottom.<\/p>\n<p>Like <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bogleheads.org\/forum\/viewtopic.php?f=10&amp;t=25126\">this guy in his Boggleheads post<\/a>\u00a0from October 2008:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>I have been retired for 10 years. I am one who has said over and over again. Stay the course. Look for the long term. Yeah, sure. That\u2019s fine until today. Today did it. I am just starting to be scared so that I won\u2019t tell my wife what happened today\u2026stocks down\u2026bonds down\u2026I\u2019m down. Our retirement funds are sucking down the drain. I lost today alone a year\u2019s worth of normal distributions for expenses. I keep thinking tomorrow will be a turn around. I have said that for 30 days.<\/p>\n<p>I am 25% capitulating tomorrow, maybe 50% to money markets\u2026.maybe all.<\/p>\n<p>This is not me. I will see tomorrow.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Needless to say, the longest bull market in history started in Q1 2009.<\/p>\n<p>Now, back to the topic of \u201cRecession Predictions vs Economists &amp; The Media\u201d.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_If_Theyre_Right\"><\/span>What If They\u2019re Right?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>They\u00a0<strong>are\u00a0<\/strong>right.<\/p>\n<p>As long as \u201cthey\u201d are not putting a hard date to address the\u00a0<em>when<\/em>, they\u2019re right for the\u00a0<em>what<\/em>. As I said before: we\u2019re always headed towards a recession.<\/p>\n<p>And there are <strong>always<\/strong> indicators that confirm we&#8217;re <del>getting close<\/del> overdue. Here are some visuals for the doomers.<\/p>\n<p>The following chart shows US federal rate cuts relative to recessions (the grey areas).<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_2965\" style=\"width: 963px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-2965\" class=\"wp-image-2965 size-full\" src=\"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/fed-rates-2024.png\" alt=\"recession\" width=\"953\" height=\"480\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-2965\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/FEDFUNDS\">https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/FEDFUNDS<\/a><\/p><\/div>\n<p>The next one shows the 2\/10 yield curve inversions relative to recessions (the grey areas).<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_2966\" style=\"width: 964px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-2966\" class=\"wp-image-2966 size-full\" src=\"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/yield-curve-2024.png\" alt=\"yield curve\" width=\"954\" height=\"450\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-2966\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/T10Y2Y\">https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/T10Y2Y<\/a><\/p><\/div>\n<p>So yes, something is definitely coming our way.<\/p>\n<p>The leading indicators are on point. However,\u00a0these are not scientific laws. Not every inversion was followed by a recession, but every recession was preceded by an inversion. And the delay is also not written in stone \u2013 sometimes it\u2019s 6 months after, sometimes more than 18. Nobody can extrapolate\u00a0<em>exactly<\/em>\u00a0when the market will react to it.<\/p>\n<p>I also found an old screenshot from a website called <a href=\"http:\/\/recession-sentiment.herokuapp.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">recession-sentiment<\/a>. It shows the appearance of the term \u201crecession\u201d in media headlines and S&amp;P&#8217;s performance over time.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-2967\" src=\"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/sentiment.png\" alt=\"recession\" width=\"1889\" height=\"622\" \/><\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s interesting how correlated they are with the short-term down-trends.<\/p>\n<p>And they were wrong for nearly a decade until the Covid crash.<\/p>\n<p>And lastly, when it comes to predicting the last X recessions | X &gt; [recessions], check this <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reddit.com\/r\/Economics\/comments\/bte6kb\/economy_at_very_real_risk_of_falling_into\/eozehtf\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">interesting comment<\/a> I&#8217;ve saved in 2019. I&#8217;ll quote it here:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p class=\"_1qeIAgB0cPwnLhDF9XSiJM\">Bloomberg \u2013\u00a0<a class=\"_3t5uN8xUmg0TOwRCOGQEcU\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/videos\/2019-05-13\/tariffs-risk-recession-like-levels-on-indicators-jpm-s-normand-says-video\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Tariffs Risk \u2018Recession-Like Levels\u2019 on Indicators, JPM\u2019s Normand Says<\/a>\u00a0May 2019<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1qeIAgB0cPwnLhDF9XSiJM\">Bloomberg \u2013\u00a0<a class=\"_3t5uN8xUmg0TOwRCOGQEcU\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/opinion\/articles\/2019-03-18\/a-recession-is-coming-and-maybe-a-bear-market-too\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">A Recession Is Coming, And Maybe a Bear Market, Too<\/a>\u00a0Mar 2019<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1qeIAgB0cPwnLhDF9XSiJM\">Bloomberg \u2013\u00a0<a class=\"_3t5uN8xUmg0TOwRCOGQEcU\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/videos\/2019-03-08\/u-s-may-fall-into-recession-as-early-as-2020-stifel-nicolaus-says-video\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">U.S. May Fall Into Recession as Early as 2020, Stifel Nicolaus Says<\/a>\u00a0Mar 2019<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1qeIAgB0cPwnLhDF9XSiJM\">Bloomberg \u2013\u00a0<a class=\"_3t5uN8xUmg0TOwRCOGQEcU\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2019-02-25\/most-economists-see-u-s-recession-by-2021-nabe-survey-shows\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Most Economists See U.S. Recession by 2021, Survey Shows<\/a>\u00a0Feb 2019<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1qeIAgB0cPwnLhDF9XSiJM\">Bloomberg \u2013\u00a0<a class=\"_3t5uN8xUmg0TOwRCOGQEcU\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2019-02-14\/what-indicators-to-monitor-for-signs-a-u-s-recession-is-coming\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">These Are the Signs a U.S. Recession May Be Coming<\/a>\u00a0Feb 2019<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1qeIAgB0cPwnLhDF9XSiJM\">Bloomberg \u2013\u00a0<a class=\"_3t5uN8xUmg0TOwRCOGQEcU\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/videos\/2019-02-25\/economists-think-the-u-s-will-be-in-recession-by-2021-video\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Economists Think the U.S. Will Be in Recession by 2021<\/a>\u00a0Feb 2019<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1qeIAgB0cPwnLhDF9XSiJM\">Bloomberg \u2013\u00a0<a class=\"_3t5uN8xUmg0TOwRCOGQEcU\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/opinion\/articles\/2019-01-02\/markets-signal-higher-odds-of-a-2019-recession\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Markets Are Signaling Higher Odds of a 2019 Recession<\/a>\u00a0Jan 2019<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1qeIAgB0cPwnLhDF9XSiJM\">Bloomberg \u2013\u00a0<a class=\"_3t5uN8xUmg0TOwRCOGQEcU\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/opinion\/articles\/2019-01-02\/market-recession-warnings-are-popping-up-all-over\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Markets Keep Flashing Recession Warnings<\/a>\u00a0Jan 2019<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1qeIAgB0cPwnLhDF9XSiJM\">Bloomberg \u2013\u00a0<a class=\"_3t5uN8xUmg0TOwRCOGQEcU\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/opinion\/articles\/2018-12-06\/markets-in-turmoil-a-recession-seems-unavoidable\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Market Moves Suggest a Recession Is Unavoidable<\/a>\u00a0Dec 2018<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1qeIAgB0cPwnLhDF9XSiJM\">Bloomberg \u2013\u00a0<a class=\"_3t5uN8xUmg0TOwRCOGQEcU\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2018-12-12\/u-s-cfos-overwhelmingly-expect-a-recession-within-two-years\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">U.S. CFOs Overwhelmingly Expect a Recession Within Two Years<\/a>\u00a0Dec 2018<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1qeIAgB0cPwnLhDF9XSiJM\">Bloomberg \u2013\u00a0<a class=\"_3t5uN8xUmg0TOwRCOGQEcU\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2018-12-13\/pimco-sees-flashing-orange-u-s-recession-signal-as-cycle-ages\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Pimco Sees \u2018Flashing Orange\u2019 U.S. Recession Signal as Cycle Ages<\/a>\u00a0Dec 2018<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1qeIAgB0cPwnLhDF9XSiJM\">Bloomberg \u2013\u00a0<a class=\"_3t5uN8xUmg0TOwRCOGQEcU\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2018-10-01\/two-thirds-of-u-s-business-economists-see-recession-by-end-2020\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Two-Thirds of U.S. Business Economists See Recession by End-2020<\/a>\u00a0Oct 2018<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1qeIAgB0cPwnLhDF9XSiJM\">Bloomberg \u2013\u00a0<a class=\"_3t5uN8xUmg0TOwRCOGQEcU\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2018-09-13\/warnings-keep-coming-about-a-downturn-that-will-hit-in-2020\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Warnings Keep Coming About a Downturn That Will Hit in 2020<\/a>\u00a0Sep 2018<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1qeIAgB0cPwnLhDF9XSiJM\">Bloomberg \u2013\u00a0<a class=\"_3t5uN8xUmg0TOwRCOGQEcU\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2018-07-10\/a-u-s-recession-indicator-flashes-red-for-leuthold-s-paulsen\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">A U.S. Recession Indicator Flashes Red for Leuthold\u2019s Paulsen<\/a>\u00a0Jul 2018<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1qeIAgB0cPwnLhDF9XSiJM\">Bloomberg \u2013\u00a0<a class=\"_3t5uN8xUmg0TOwRCOGQEcU\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/opinion\/articles\/2018-06-29\/next-u-s-recession-will-be-triggered-by-something-unexpected\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">What Will Trigger the Next Recession?<\/a>\u00a0Jun 2018<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1qeIAgB0cPwnLhDF9XSiJM\">Bloomberg \u2013\u00a0<a class=\"_3t5uN8xUmg0TOwRCOGQEcU\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2018-05-22\/next-u-s-recession-seen-beginning-in-2020-zillow-pulsenomics\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">The Next U.S. Recession Will Start in 2020, Survey Says<\/a>\u00a0May 2018<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1qeIAgB0cPwnLhDF9XSiJM\">Bloomberg \u2013\u00a0<a class=\"_3t5uN8xUmg0TOwRCOGQEcU\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/opinion\/articles\/2018-05-15\/recession-often-follows-when-unemployment-hits-a-low\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Unemployment Hits a Low. Then Comes the Recession.<\/a>\u00a0May 2018<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1qeIAgB0cPwnLhDF9XSiJM\">Bloomberg \u2013\u00a0<a class=\"_3t5uN8xUmg0TOwRCOGQEcU\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/opinion\/articles\/2018-03-08\/the-next-recession-may-come-as-a-surprise\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">U.S. Recession Looms, Yield Curve Inversion or Not<\/a>\u00a0Mar 2018<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1qeIAgB0cPwnLhDF9XSiJM\">Bloomberg \u2013\u00a0<a class=\"_3t5uN8xUmg0TOwRCOGQEcU\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2018-02-28\/summers-warns-next-u-s-recession-could-outlast-the-previous-one\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Summers Warns Next U.S. Recession Could Outlast Previous One<\/a>\u00a0Feb 2018<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1qeIAgB0cPwnLhDF9XSiJM\">Bloomberg \u2013\u00a0<a class=\"_3t5uN8xUmg0TOwRCOGQEcU\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2018-01-18\/here-s-what-could-make-the-next-global-recession-even-worse\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Here\u2019s What Could Make the Next Global Recession Even Worse<\/a>\u00a0Jan 2018<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1qeIAgB0cPwnLhDF9XSiJM\">Bloomberg \u2013\u00a0<a class=\"_3t5uN8xUmg0TOwRCOGQEcU\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/view\/articles\/2017-12-15\/recession-lurks-in-fed-s-bullish-new-jobs-forecasts\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Recession Lurks in Fed\u2019s Bullish New Jobs Forecasts<\/a>\u00a0Dec 2017<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1qeIAgB0cPwnLhDF9XSiJM\">Bloomberg \u2013\u00a0<a class=\"_3t5uN8xUmg0TOwRCOGQEcU\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2017-11-30\/goldilocks-may-face-at-least-one-bear-late-2019-guggenheim-says\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Guggenheim Sees Recession as Soon as Late 2019<\/a>\u00a0Nov 2017<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1qeIAgB0cPwnLhDF9XSiJM\">Bloomberg \u2013\u00a0<a class=\"_3t5uN8xUmg0TOwRCOGQEcU\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2017-08-22\/wall-street-banks-warn-winter-is-coming-as-business-cycle-peaks\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Wall Street Banks Warn Downturn Is Coming<\/a>\u00a0Aug 2017<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1qeIAgB0cPwnLhDF9XSiJM\">Bloomberg \u2013\u00a0<a class=\"_3t5uN8xUmg0TOwRCOGQEcU\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2017-08-14\/central-banks-told-to-embrace-negative-rates-as-recession-looms\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">With Next Recession Looming, Central Banks Better Make Peace With Negative Rates<\/a>\u00a0Aug 2017<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1qeIAgB0cPwnLhDF9XSiJM\">Bloomberg \u2013\u00a0<a class=\"_3t5uN8xUmg0TOwRCOGQEcU\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/opinion\/articles\/2017-06-14\/how-the-u-s-economy-will-enter-its-next-recession\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">How This Economic Recovery Ends<\/a>\u00a0Jun 2017<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1qeIAgB0cPwnLhDF9XSiJM\">Bloomberg \u2013\u00a0<a class=\"_3t5uN8xUmg0TOwRCOGQEcU\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/videos\/2017-06-01\/pimco-s-balls-warns-of-3-5-year-u-s-recession-risk-video\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Pimco\u2019s Balls Sees U.S. Recession Risk in Next 3-5 Years<\/a>\u00a0Jun 2017<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1qeIAgB0cPwnLhDF9XSiJM\">Bloomberg \u2013\u00a0<a class=\"_3t5uN8xUmg0TOwRCOGQEcU\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/videos\/2017-01-06\/ab-s-zlotnikov-warns-of-u-s-recession-in-2018\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">AB\u2019s Zlotnikov Warns of U.S. Recession in 2018<\/a>\u00a0Jan 2017<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1qeIAgB0cPwnLhDF9XSiJM\">Bloomberg \u2013\u00a0<a class=\"_3t5uN8xUmg0TOwRCOGQEcU\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2016-08-25\/citigroup-a-trump-victory-in-november-could-cause-a-global-recession\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Citigroup: A Trump Victory in November Could Cause a Global Recession<\/a>\u00a0Aug 2016<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1qeIAgB0cPwnLhDF9XSiJM\">Bloomberg \u2013\u00a0<a class=\"_3t5uN8xUmg0TOwRCOGQEcU\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/videos\/2016-07-19\/is-a-u-s-recession-looming-in-2017\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Is a U.S. Recession Looming in 2017?<\/a>\u00a0Jul 2016<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1qeIAgB0cPwnLhDF9XSiJM\">Bloomberg \u2013\u00a0<a class=\"_3t5uN8xUmg0TOwRCOGQEcU\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2016-06-14\/u-s-recession-odds-climb-to-55-as-yield-curve-flattens-chart\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">U.S. Recession Odds Climb to 55%<\/a>\u00a0Jun 2016<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1qeIAgB0cPwnLhDF9XSiJM\">Bloomberg \u2013\u00a0<a class=\"_3t5uN8xUmg0TOwRCOGQEcU\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/videos\/2016-05-23\/will-u-s-stay-out-of-recession-for-next-2-years\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">U.S. Recession Coming in 2018?<\/a>\u00a0May 2016<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1qeIAgB0cPwnLhDF9XSiJM\">Bloomberg \u2013\u00a0<a class=\"_3t5uN8xUmg0TOwRCOGQEcU\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2016-03-04\/jim-rogers-there-s-a-100-probability-of-a-u-s-recession-within-a-year\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">There\u2019s a 100% Probability of a U.S. Recession Within a Year<\/a>\u00a0March 2016<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1qeIAgB0cPwnLhDF9XSiJM\">Bloomberg \u2013\u00a0<a class=\"_3t5uN8xUmg0TOwRCOGQEcU\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/videos\/2016-02-04\/three-warning-signs-of-a-recession\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Three Warning Signs of a Recession<\/a>\u00a0Feb 2016<\/p>\n<p class=\"_1qeIAgB0cPwnLhDF9XSiJM\">Bloomberg \u2013\u00a0<a class=\"_3t5uN8xUmg0TOwRCOGQEcU\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/graphics\/2016-another-recession\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Are We Headed for Recession?<\/a>\u00a0Jan 2016<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Think with your own head without becoming a conspiracy theorist.<\/p>\n<p>You&#8217;ll do fine.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><em>For a comprehensive, beginner-friendly, and <strong>free resource<\/strong> on stock market investing, visit:\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/dpetkovski.com\/how-to-start-investing-a-complete-beginner-series\/\"><strong><em>How to Start Investing: A Complete Beginner Series<\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&ldquo;Economists predicted 9 of the last 4 recessions.&rdquo; People often get obsessed with predictions and live in continuous fear of a market collapse. This is my attempt to convince you that uncertainty is normal. As someone that strategically invests since 2017, I know how to filter out the noise and sleep comfortably with a 7&nbsp;&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2975,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13,16,17],"tags":[],"ppma_author":[4],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Recession Predictions vs Economists &amp; the Media - D. Petkovski<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/recession-predictions-vs-economists-the-media\/\" \/>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Recession Predictions vs Economists & the Media - D. Petkovski","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/recession-predictions-vs-economists-the-media\/","schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/recession-predictions-vs-economists-the-media\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/recession-predictions-vs-economists-the-media\/"},"author":{"name":"D. Petkovski","@id":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/#\/schema\/person\/ce4d9bf1ba43635723c9d1b513b58049"},"headline":"Recession Predictions vs Economists &#038; the Media","datePublished":"2024-05-31T12:26:48+00:00","dateModified":"2024-07-03T19:00:53+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/recession-predictions-vs-economists-the-media\/"},"wordCount":1431,"publisher":{"@id":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/#\/schema\/person\/ce4d9bf1ba43635723c9d1b513b58049"},"articleSection":["Finance &amp; Economics","Investing","Stocks &amp; ETFs"],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/recession-predictions-vs-economists-the-media\/","url":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/recession-predictions-vs-economists-the-media\/","name":"Recession Predictions vs Economists & the Media - D. 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Petkovski","description":"","publisher":{"@id":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/#\/schema\/person\/ce4d9bf1ba43635723c9d1b513b58049"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":["Person","Organization"],"@id":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/#\/schema\/person\/ce4d9bf1ba43635723c9d1b513b58049","name":"D. Petkovski","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/1375f840626910edc086c1a5da56659f","url":"http:\/\/2.gravatar.com\/avatar\/?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"http:\/\/2.gravatar.com\/avatar\/?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"D. Petkovski"},"logo":{"@id":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/1375f840626910edc086c1a5da56659f"},"description":"D. Petkovski \ud83d\udcd3 Author\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 Husband &amp; Father Software Engineer\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0StrengthCentric Bitcoin Hodler\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0DeFi Veteran \u00a0 \ud83c\udf0d Everything Enthusiast \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\ud83d\udd25 Optimist Revolutionizing ideas. Simplifying complexity. Sharing knowledge.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/dpetkovski","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/strengthcentric\/","https:\/\/twitter.com\/petkovskix"],"url":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/author\/petkovski\/"}]}},"authors":[{"term_id":4,"user_id":1,"is_guest":0,"slug":"petkovski","display_name":"D. Petkovski","avatar_url":"http:\/\/1.gravatar.com\/avatar\/?s=96&d=mm&r=g","user_url":"","last_name":"","first_name":"","description":"<span style=\"font-size: 23px\">D. Petkovski<\/span> <br> <br>\r\n\r\n\ud83d\udcd3 Author\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0<span class=\"css-1qaijid r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0 r-poiln3\"><img class=\"emoji\" role=\"img\" src=\"https:\/\/s.w.org\/images\/core\/emoji\/14.0.0\/svg\/1f46a.svg\" alt=\"\ud83d\udc6a\" \/> Husband &amp; Father <\/span>\r\n<br>\r\n<span class=\"css-1qaijid r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0 r-poiln3\"><img class=\"emoji\" role=\"img\" src=\"https:\/\/s.w.org\/images\/core\/emoji\/14.0.0\/svg\/1f5a5.svg\" alt=\"\ud83d\udda5\ufe0f\" \/> Software Engineer\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 <\/span><span class=\"css-1qaijid r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0 r-poiln3\"><img class=\"emoji\" role=\"img\" src=\"https:\/\/s.w.org\/images\/core\/emoji\/14.0.0\/svg\/1f4aa.svg\" alt=\"\ud83d\udcaa\" \/><\/span><span class=\"css-1qaijid r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0 r-poiln3\">\u00a0StrengthCentric <\/span>\r\n<br>\r\n<span class=\"r-18u37iz\"><img class=\"r-4qtqp9 r-dflpy8 r-zw8f10 r-10akycc r-h9hxbl r-9cviqr\" src=\"https:\/\/abs.twimg.com\/hashflags\/Bitcoin_evergreen\/Bitcoin_evergreen.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"20\" height=\"20\" \/> <\/span> Bitcoin <span class=\"css-1qaijid r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0 r-poiln3\">Hodler\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0   \u00a0                            \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0<\/span><span class=\"css-1qaijid r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0 r-poiln3\"><img class=\"emoji\" role=\"img\" src=\"https:\/\/s.w.org\/images\/core\/emoji\/14.0.0\/svg\/1f4c8.svg\" alt=\"\ud83d\udcc8\" \/><\/span>\u00a0<span class=\"r-18u37iz\">DeFi<\/span><span class=\"css-1qaijid r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0 r-poiln3\"> Veteran <\/span><span class=\"css-1qaijid r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0 r-poiln3\">\u00a0<\/span>\r\n<br>\r\n\ud83c\udf0d Everything Enthusiast              \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0   \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0              \u00a0   \u00a0\ud83d\udd25 Optimist <br><br>\r\n\r\nRevolutionizing ideas. Simplifying complexity. Sharing knowledge. \r\n"}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2960"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2960"}],"version-history":[{"count":21,"href":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2960\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3458,"href":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2960\/revisions\/3458"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2975"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2960"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2960"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2960"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=2960"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}