{"id":2995,"date":"2024-06-17T19:49:06","date_gmt":"2024-06-17T19:49:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/?p=2995"},"modified":"2024-07-03T18:55:18","modified_gmt":"2024-07-03T18:55:18","slug":"sticking-to-a-strategy-notes-from-the-2020-recession","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/sticking-to-a-strategy-notes-from-the-2020-recession\/","title":{"rendered":"Sticking to a Strategy (Notes From the 2020 Recession)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>I wrote this post for a discontinued blog during the market crash of March 2020, before the Covid recession was officially announced.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>I decided to republish it on dpetkovski.com because it&#8217;s <\/em><em>evergreen content &#8211; i<\/em><em>t gives unique insights into the mind of a retail investor during market turmoil. And the thought process should be applicable for any future financial crises.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Enjoy!<\/em><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_60 ez-toc-wrap-center counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-white ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title \" >Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\" role=\"button\"><label for=\"item-668bb72393364\" ><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input aria-label=\"Toggle\" aria-label=\"item-668bb72393364\"  type=\"checkbox\" id=\"item-668bb72393364\"><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/sticking-to-a-strategy-notes-from-the-2020-recession\/#Introduction\" title=\"Introduction\">Introduction<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/sticking-to-a-strategy-notes-from-the-2020-recession\/#Scenario_1_%E2%80%93_The_situation_improves_from_tomorrow\" title=\"Scenario 1 \u2013 The situation improves from tomorrow\">Scenario 1 \u2013 The situation improves from tomorrow<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/sticking-to-a-strategy-notes-from-the-2020-recession\/#Scenario_2_%E2%80%93_Bear_market_for_12-36_months\" title=\"Scenario 2 \u2013 Bear market for 12-36 months\">Scenario 2 \u2013 Bear market for 12-36 months<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/sticking-to-a-strategy-notes-from-the-2020-recession\/#Scenario_3_%E2%80%93_Armageddon\" title=\"Scenario 3 \u2013 Armageddon\">Scenario 3 \u2013 Armageddon<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/sticking-to-a-strategy-notes-from-the-2020-recession\/#Summary\" title=\"Summary\">Summary<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Introduction\"><\/span>Introduction<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>I guess this post qualifies as a monthly update.<\/p>\n<p>However, what I\u2019ll share is applicable to any period in a long-term investor\u2019s horizon, so take notes.<\/p>\n<p>First thing&#8217;s first, here is the S&amp;P 500\u2019s performance over the past year:<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-2998 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/sp500-2020-crash.png\" alt=\"sp500-2020\" width=\"825\" height=\"585\" \/><\/p>\n<p>And I\u2019m doing fine.<\/p>\n<p>And, as a long-term investor, you should too.<\/p>\n<p>If you\u2019re panicking and have the urge to ask \u201chow come!?\u201d, let me help you figure it out. We\u2019ll analyze this strictly from <a href=\"https:\/\/dpetkovski.com\/index-investing-index-funds-a-gentle-introduction\/\">long-term investing<\/a> perspective and explain why you shouldn\u2019t panic, why you shouldn\u2019t be worried, and why you should stick to your strategy.<\/p>\n<p>Let\u2019s dissect all the scenarios that may happen.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Scenario_1_%E2%80%93_The_situation_improves_from_tomorrow\"><\/span>Scenario 1 \u2013 The situation improves from tomorrow<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>This is\u00a0not\u00a0an unlikely scenario.<\/p>\n<p>The situation might be under control and the economy might start recovering from tomorrow. The market may be <a href=\"https:\/\/dpetkovski.com\/market-efficiency-efficient-market-hypothesis\">too forward looking<\/a> that everything that may happen is already \u201cpriced in\u201d. Plus, there is the Fed doing everything possible to end the bear run.<\/p>\n<p>Then, you\u2019ll be relieved as you won\u2019t see your portfolio go lower than it currently is. It didn\u2019t hurt that much, did it?<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s a double edged sword though. The worst thing about this scenario is that it lasted too short. That a recession was not official and the ammunition required to aim at one was wasted on <a href=\"https:\/\/dpetkovski.com\/how-the-money-printer-makes-you-poor\">manipulating the economy<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>In other words: enjoy seeing beautiful greenery, but this just <a href=\"https:\/\/dpetkovski.com\/recession-predictions-vs-economists-the-media\/\">postpones the inevitable<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>And the good news: you have the option to build your portfolio with the prices from 3 years ago.<\/p>\n<p>But what if this doesn\u2019t happen?<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Scenario_2_%E2%80%93_Bear_market_for_12-36_months\"><\/span>Scenario 2 \u2013 Bear market for 12-36 months<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>This is also not an unlikely scenario.<\/p>\n<p>As Peter Schiff says, paraphrased: \u201c<em>people focus so much on the needle that they don\u2019t see the bubble<\/em>\u201d \u2013 the market was (is) overvalued and there was (is) no solid foundation supporting the prices. The coronavirus just started what would\u2019ve happened anyway.<\/p>\n<p>Think about it \u2013 the above mentioned initiatives such as 0% rates, no reserve requirements, potential bail-outs, aggressive <a href=\"https:\/\/dpetkovski.com\/how-the-money-printer-makes-you-poor\">quantitative easing<\/a> and government spending is like playing Jenga on an shaky surface. And once we declare a victory over the parabolic rise of the pandemic, we may see the economy collapsing as it was due.<\/p>\n<p>We may be in a recession and it may be official from tomorrow.<\/p>\n<p>It may turn into a depression and we may see a few years of rising unemployment, poverty, defaults, debt forgiveness, new regulations, and ultimately wealth redistribution.<\/p>\n<p>Whatever it is, it doesn\u2019t scare me. This time is\u00a0<strong>not\u00a0<\/strong>different. Maybe just on the surface (the needle, remember?). As long as the world exists as we know it, <a href=\"https:\/\/dpetkovski.com\/why-the-stock-market-always-goes-up\/\">this too shall pass<\/a>. Your focus should be to end up on the winning side after the fact, as there is not much to do as an individual to prevent further damage.<\/p>\n<p>But the bottom line\u2026 You bought the same <a href=\"https:\/\/dpetkovski.com\/etfs-exchange-traded-funds\/\">ETFs<\/a>, with the same dollar amount, every month, no matter what, right? Eventually entering a bear market should also have been a part of your strategy as a long-term investor. Otherwise, why did you <a href=\"https:\/\/dpetkovski.com\/dca-dollar-cost-averaging-investment-strategy-explained\">DCA<\/a>?<\/p>\n<p>And if you <a href=\"https:\/\/dpetkovski.com\/lump-sum-strategy-time-in-the-market-done-right\/\">waited for the bottom<\/a>, maybe it\u2019s got time to start dipping in the markets slowly.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Scenario_3_%E2%80%93_Armageddon\"><\/span>Scenario 3 \u2013 Armageddon<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>This is an unlikely scenario.<\/p>\n<p>Anyway, let\u2019s entertain it.<\/p>\n<p>Short and simple: if the empire fails, nothing will matter.<\/p>\n<p>Whether you kept your wealth in cash, redistributed among various currencies, government or corporate bonds, value or growth stocks, precious metals or real estate, it won\u2019t matter. Everything becomes correlated if we\u2019re entering a scenario such as this one.<\/p>\n<p>But whatever happens, here\u2019s the takeaway: you can\u2019t lose.<\/p>\n<p>You won\u2019t be left behind.<\/p>\n<p>You\u2019re one with the world.<\/p>\n<p>And we\u2019ll all go down.<\/p>\n<p>So, our lives might suck for a while compared to what we were used to, but in relative terms, we\u2019ll do just fine.<\/p>\n<p>Although I don\u2019t expect this to happen, I\u2019m exposed to asset classes considered \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/dpetkovski.com\/the-inevitability-of-bitcoin\/\">risky alternative investments<\/a>\u201d as a hedge against the eventual guaranteed financial collapse. This rate of <a href=\"https:\/\/dpetkovski.com\/how-the-money-printer-makes-you-poor\">devaluation of the FIAT currencies<\/a> can\u2019t last forever. Another generation or two at maximum.<\/p>\n<p>But that\u2019s a story for another time.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Summary\"><\/span>Summary<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Nothing makes sense in times like this, so the smartest thing to do is\u00a0not\u00a0deviating from your long-term strategy.<\/p>\n<p>And if you&#8217;re confused in creating one, visit my beginner-friendly and <strong>free resource<\/strong>: <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/dpetkovski.com\/how-to-start-investing-a-complete-beginner-series\/\">How to Start Investing: A Complete Beginner Series<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I wrote this post for a discontinued blog during the market crash of March 2020, before the Covid recession was officially announced. I decided to republish it on dpetkovski.com because it&rsquo;s evergreen content &ndash; it gives unique insights into the mind of a retail investor during market turmoil. And the thought process should be applicable&nbsp;&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2997,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13,16,17],"tags":[],"ppma_author":[4],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Sticking to a Strategy (Notes From the 2020 Recession) - D. Petkovski<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/sticking-to-a-strategy-notes-from-the-2020-recession\/\" \/>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Sticking to a Strategy (Notes From the 2020 Recession) - D. Petkovski","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/sticking-to-a-strategy-notes-from-the-2020-recession\/","schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/sticking-to-a-strategy-notes-from-the-2020-recession\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/sticking-to-a-strategy-notes-from-the-2020-recession\/"},"author":{"name":"D. 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Petkovski","description":"","publisher":{"@id":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/#\/schema\/person\/ce4d9bf1ba43635723c9d1b513b58049"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":["Person","Organization"],"@id":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/#\/schema\/person\/ce4d9bf1ba43635723c9d1b513b58049","name":"D. Petkovski","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/89ff1464b73463c0cc3966b32b10dd7a","url":"http:\/\/1.gravatar.com\/avatar\/?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"http:\/\/1.gravatar.com\/avatar\/?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"D. Petkovski"},"logo":{"@id":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/89ff1464b73463c0cc3966b32b10dd7a"},"description":"D. Petkovski \ud83d\udcd3 Author\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 Husband &amp; Father Software Engineer\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0StrengthCentric Bitcoin Hodler\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0DeFi Veteran \u00a0 \ud83c\udf0d Everything Enthusiast \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\ud83d\udd25 Optimist Revolutionizing ideas. Simplifying complexity. Sharing knowledge.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/dpetkovski","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/strengthcentric\/","https:\/\/twitter.com\/petkovskix"],"url":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/author\/petkovski\/"}]}},"authors":[{"term_id":4,"user_id":1,"is_guest":0,"slug":"petkovski","display_name":"D. Petkovski","avatar_url":"http:\/\/2.gravatar.com\/avatar\/?s=96&d=mm&r=g","user_url":"","last_name":"","first_name":"","description":"<span style=\"font-size: 23px\">D. Petkovski<\/span> <br> <br>\r\n\r\n\ud83d\udcd3 Author\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0<span class=\"css-1qaijid r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0 r-poiln3\"><img class=\"emoji\" role=\"img\" src=\"https:\/\/s.w.org\/images\/core\/emoji\/14.0.0\/svg\/1f46a.svg\" alt=\"\ud83d\udc6a\" \/> Husband &amp; Father <\/span>\r\n<br>\r\n<span class=\"css-1qaijid r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0 r-poiln3\"><img class=\"emoji\" role=\"img\" src=\"https:\/\/s.w.org\/images\/core\/emoji\/14.0.0\/svg\/1f5a5.svg\" alt=\"\ud83d\udda5\ufe0f\" \/> Software Engineer\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 <\/span><span class=\"css-1qaijid r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0 r-poiln3\"><img class=\"emoji\" role=\"img\" src=\"https:\/\/s.w.org\/images\/core\/emoji\/14.0.0\/svg\/1f4aa.svg\" alt=\"\ud83d\udcaa\" \/><\/span><span class=\"css-1qaijid r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0 r-poiln3\">\u00a0StrengthCentric <\/span>\r\n<br>\r\n<span class=\"r-18u37iz\"><img class=\"r-4qtqp9 r-dflpy8 r-zw8f10 r-10akycc r-h9hxbl r-9cviqr\" src=\"https:\/\/abs.twimg.com\/hashflags\/Bitcoin_evergreen\/Bitcoin_evergreen.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"20\" height=\"20\" \/> <\/span> Bitcoin <span class=\"css-1qaijid r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0 r-poiln3\">Hodler\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0   \u00a0                            \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0<\/span><span class=\"css-1qaijid r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0 r-poiln3\"><img class=\"emoji\" role=\"img\" src=\"https:\/\/s.w.org\/images\/core\/emoji\/14.0.0\/svg\/1f4c8.svg\" alt=\"\ud83d\udcc8\" \/><\/span>\u00a0<span class=\"r-18u37iz\">DeFi<\/span><span class=\"css-1qaijid r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0 r-poiln3\"> Veteran <\/span><span class=\"css-1qaijid r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0 r-poiln3\">\u00a0<\/span>\r\n<br>\r\n\ud83c\udf0d Everything Enthusiast              \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0   \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0              \u00a0   \u00a0\ud83d\udd25 Optimist <br><br>\r\n\r\nRevolutionizing ideas. Simplifying complexity. Sharing knowledge. \r\n"}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2995"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2995"}],"version-history":[{"count":17,"href":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2995\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3454,"href":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2995\/revisions\/3454"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2997"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2995"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2995"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2995"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=2995"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}