{"id":3098,"date":"2024-06-15T15:12:32","date_gmt":"2024-06-15T15:12:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/?p=3098"},"modified":"2024-06-15T15:26:03","modified_gmt":"2024-06-15T15:26:03","slug":"conservative-predictions-during-bear-markets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/conservative-predictions-during-bear-markets\/","title":{"rendered":"Conservative Predictions During Bear Markets"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>As a crypto historian, I wanted to take a look at the sentiment of market participants before previous bull runs.<\/p>\n<p>The TLDR is: investors\u00a0are way too conservative during bear markets.<\/p>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_60 ez-toc-wrap-center counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-white ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title \" >Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\" role=\"button\"><label for=\"item-66e419decbbe6\" ><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/label><input aria-label=\"Toggle\" aria-label=\"item-66e419decbbe6\"  type=\"checkbox\" id=\"item-66e419decbbe6\"><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/conservative-predictions-during-bear-markets\/#Price_Predictions_From_2016\" title=\"Price Predictions From 2016\">Price Predictions From 2016<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/conservative-predictions-during-bear-markets\/#Lessons_There\" title=\"Lessons There?\">Lessons There?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/conservative-predictions-during-bear-markets\/#Takeaways\" title=\"Takeaways\">Takeaways<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Price_Predictions_From_2016\"><\/span>Price Predictions From 2016<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Here is a Reddit thread from 2016 where users discuss Ether&#8217;s price: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reddit.com\/r\/ethtrader\/comments\/54dtgu\/end_of_2016_and_2017_price_target_place_your_bets\/\">End of 2016 and 2017 price target, place your bets!<\/a><\/p>\n<p>At that point in time, they had this chart at their disposal:<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3101\" src=\"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/eth-price-prediction-2.png\" alt=\"eth-price-prediction\" width=\"1316\" height=\"809\" \/><\/p>\n<p>In hindsight, $ETH at ~$10 looks like a great buying opportunity.<\/p>\n<p>But at that moment, investors are looking at a speculative investment that already grew ~400% during the year.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s just a few examples of what people predicted:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>$32 for 2017.<\/li>\n<li>End of 2017: $28-$52.4<\/li>\n<li>End 2017 &#8211; 50-75<\/li>\n<li>End 2017 60$-70$ (with POS running and reduced inflation)<\/li>\n<li>End of 2017: $20.00<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>etc. Feel free to visit the link and go through them all.<\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s unbelievable!<\/p>\n<p>There is not a single comment over there that forecasts $ETH going above $1,000.<\/p>\n<p>Not a single one!<\/p>\n<p>Yet, here is Ether&#8217;s chart but <strong>with the benefit of knowing the future <\/strong>(the period from the previous chart is circled in red):<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-3100\" src=\"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/eth-price-prediction-1.png\" alt=\"eth-price-prediction\" width=\"1324\" height=\"818\" \/><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Lessons_There\"><\/span>Lessons There?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>This is a reminder of how it looks and feels to be &#8220;early&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p>It is also a reminder of how bear markets can affect people&#8217;s perceptions.<\/p>\n<p>No surprises that almost nobody assumed that\u00a0an asset that grew 400% can grow 10,000% more next year. \ud83e\udd2f<\/p>\n<p>Of course, $ETH may not be the coin that will do another 100x, but its story is a statement for never underestimating what&#8217;s possible. Today, there are memecoins with 0 utility that are more valuable than $ETH in 2016.<\/p>\n<p>So, what&#8217;s the lesson?<\/p>\n<p>I guess: don&#8217;t fall for the <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Anchoring_effect\">anchoring effect<\/a> &#8211; next time you negotiate a salary, make sure to start at $10M per year.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Takeaways\"><\/span>Takeaways<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Talking about the past is easy because hindsight is 20\/20. The future is inherently uncertain, but we all make decisions based on our knowledge and expectations.<\/p>\n<p>So, what do I do? <a href=\"https:\/\/dpetkovski.com\/how-i-accumulate-bitcoin-during-bear-markets\/\">I&#8217;m loading up during bear markets<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Heavily accumulating and <a href=\"https:\/\/dpetkovski.com\/the-4-year-cycle-bitcoin-price-prediction\/\">riding the cycles<\/a>. I already published my <a href=\"https:\/\/dpetkovski.com\/tales-from-the-last-cycle-exit-crypto-in-profit\">experience with the 2021 cycle<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/dpetkovski.com\/how-i-accumulate-bitcoin-during-bear-markets\/\">I&#8217;m doing it again<\/a> this time.<\/p>\n<p>With that said, do I think it&#8217;s late to enter with size?<\/p>\n<p><strong>Most probably.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>We&#8217;re <a href=\"https:\/\/dpetkovski.com\/bitcoin-block-reward-halving-explanation-price-impact\/\">past the halving<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/dpetkovski.com\/the-inevitability-of-bitcoin\/\">Bitcoin<\/a> ATHs, so I stopped with ongoing accumulation.<\/p>\n<p>But given the cyclical nature of the cryptocurrency market, you can save this post as motivation when the <em><a href=\"https:\/\/buybitcoinworldwide.com\/bitcoin-is-dead\/\">&#8220;Bitcoin is dead&#8221;<\/a><\/em> narrative becomes popular again.<\/p>\n<p>Until then, click all the links in this section and start learning.<\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;ll be a nice ride ahead!<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As a crypto historian, I wanted to take a look at the sentiment of market participants before previous bull runs. The TLDR is: investors&nbsp;are way too conservative during bear markets. Price Predictions From 2016 Here is a Reddit thread from 2016 where users discuss Ether&rsquo;s price: End of 2016 and 2017 price target, place your&nbsp;&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3216,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,16],"tags":[],"ppma_author":[4],"class_list":["post-3098","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cryptocurrency","category-investing"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Conservative Predictions During Bear Markets - D. Petkovski<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/conservative-predictions-during-bear-markets\/\" \/>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Conservative Predictions During Bear Markets - D. Petkovski","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/conservative-predictions-during-bear-markets\/","schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/conservative-predictions-during-bear-markets\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/conservative-predictions-during-bear-markets\/"},"author":{"name":"D. Petkovski","@id":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/#\/schema\/person\/ce4d9bf1ba43635723c9d1b513b58049"},"headline":"Conservative Predictions During Bear Markets","datePublished":"2024-06-15T15:12:32+00:00","dateModified":"2024-06-15T15:26:03+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/conservative-predictions-during-bear-markets\/"},"wordCount":427,"publisher":{"@id":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/#\/schema\/person\/ce4d9bf1ba43635723c9d1b513b58049"},"articleSection":["Cryptocurrency","Investing"],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/conservative-predictions-during-bear-markets\/","url":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/conservative-predictions-during-bear-markets\/","name":"Conservative Predictions During Bear Markets - D. 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Petkovski","description":"","publisher":{"@id":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/#\/schema\/person\/ce4d9bf1ba43635723c9d1b513b58049"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":["Person","Organization"],"@id":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/#\/schema\/person\/ce4d9bf1ba43635723c9d1b513b58049","name":"D. Petkovski","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/89ff1464b73463c0cc3966b32b10dd7a","url":"http:\/\/1.gravatar.com\/avatar\/?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"http:\/\/1.gravatar.com\/avatar\/?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"D. Petkovski"},"logo":{"@id":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/89ff1464b73463c0cc3966b32b10dd7a"},"description":"D. Petkovski \ud83d\udcd3 The Author\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 Husband &amp; Father Software Engineer\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0StrengthCentric Bitcoin Hodler\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0DeFi Veteran \u00a0 \ud83c\udf0d Everything Enthusiast \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\ud83d\udd25 Optimist Revolutionizing ideas. Simplifying complexity. Sharing knowledge.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/dpetkovski","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/strengthcentric\/","https:\/\/twitter.com\/petkovskix"],"url":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/author\/petkovski\/"}]}},"authors":[{"term_id":4,"user_id":1,"is_guest":0,"slug":"petkovski","display_name":"D. Petkovski","avatar_url":"http:\/\/1.gravatar.com\/avatar\/?s=96&d=mm&r=g","user_url":"","last_name":"","first_name":"","description":"<span style=\"font-size: 23px\">D. Petkovski<\/span> <br> <br>\r\n\r\n\ud83d\udcd3 The Author\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0  \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0<span class=\"css-1qaijid r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0 r-poiln3\"><img class=\"emoji\" role=\"img\" src=\"https:\/\/s.w.org\/images\/core\/emoji\/14.0.0\/svg\/1f46a.svg\" alt=\"\ud83d\udc6a\" \/> Husband &amp; Father <\/span>\r\n<br>\r\n<span class=\"css-1qaijid r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0 r-poiln3\"><img class=\"emoji\" role=\"img\" src=\"https:\/\/s.w.org\/images\/core\/emoji\/14.0.0\/svg\/1f5a5.svg\" alt=\"\ud83d\udda5\ufe0f\" \/> Software Engineer\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 <\/span><span class=\"css-1qaijid r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0 r-poiln3\"><img class=\"emoji\" role=\"img\" src=\"https:\/\/s.w.org\/images\/core\/emoji\/14.0.0\/svg\/1f4aa.svg\" alt=\"\ud83d\udcaa\" \/><\/span><span class=\"css-1qaijid r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0 r-poiln3\">\u00a0StrengthCentric <\/span>\r\n<br>\r\n<span class=\"r-18u37iz\"><img class=\"r-4qtqp9 r-dflpy8 r-zw8f10 r-10akycc r-h9hxbl r-9cviqr\" src=\"https:\/\/abs.twimg.com\/hashflags\/Bitcoin_evergreen\/Bitcoin_evergreen.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"20\" height=\"20\" \/> <\/span> Bitcoin <span class=\"css-1qaijid r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0 r-poiln3\">Hodler\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0   \u00a0                            \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0<\/span><span class=\"css-1qaijid r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0 r-poiln3\"><img class=\"emoji\" role=\"img\" src=\"https:\/\/s.w.org\/images\/core\/emoji\/14.0.0\/svg\/1f4c8.svg\" alt=\"\ud83d\udcc8\" \/><\/span>\u00a0<span class=\"r-18u37iz\">DeFi<\/span><span class=\"css-1qaijid r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0 r-poiln3\"> Veteran <\/span><span class=\"css-1qaijid r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0 r-poiln3\">\u00a0<\/span>\r\n<br>\r\n\ud83c\udf0d Everything Enthusiast              \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0   \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0              \u00a0   \u00a0\ud83d\udd25 Optimist <br><br>\r\n\r\nRevolutionizing ideas. Simplifying complexity. Sharing knowledge. \r\n"}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3098"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3098"}],"version-history":[{"count":22,"href":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3098\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3285,"href":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3098\/revisions\/3285"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3216"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3098"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3098"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3098"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/localhost\/dpetkovski\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=3098"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}