Conservative Predictions During Bear Markets

--- by D. Petkovski ---

As a crypto historian, I wanted to take a look at the sentiment of market participants before previous bull runs.

The TLDR is: investors are way too conservative during bear markets.

Table of Contents

Price Predictions From 2016

Here is a Reddit thread from 2016 where users discuss Ether’s price: End of 2016 and 2017 price target, place your bets!

At that point in time, they had this chart at their disposal:

In hindsight, $ETH at ~$10 looks like a great buying opportunity.

But at that moment, investors are looking at a speculative investment that already grew ~400% during the year.

Here’s just a few examples of what people predicted:

$32 for 2017.
End of 2017: $28-$52.4
End 2017 – 50-75
End 2017 60$-70$ (with POS running and reduced inflation)
End of 2017: $20.00

etc. Feel free to visit the link and go through them all.

It’s unbelievable!

There is not a single comment over there that forecasts $ETH going above $1,000.

Not a single one!

Yet, here is Ether’s chart but with the benefit of knowing the future (the period from the previous chart is circled in red):

Lessons There?

This is a reminder of how it looks and feels to be “early”.

It is also a reminder of how bear markets can affect people’s perceptions.

No surprises that almost nobody assumed that an asset that grew 400% can grow 10,000% more next year. 🤯

Of course, $ETH may not be the coin that will do another 100x, but its story is a statement for never underestimating what’s possible. Today, there are memecoins with 0 utility that are more valuable than $ETH in 2016.

So, what’s the lesson?

I guess: don’t fall for the anchoring effect – next time you negotiate a salary, make sure to start at $10M per year.

Takeaways

Talking about the past is easy because hindsight is 20/20. The future is inherently uncertain, but we all make decisions based on our knowledge and expectations.

So, what do I do? I’m loading up during bear markets.

Heavily accumulating and riding the cycles. I already published my experience with the 2021 cycle and I’m doing it again this time.

With that said, do I think it’s late to enter with size?

Most probably.

We’re past the halving and Bitcoin ATHs, so I stopped with ongoing accumulation.

But given the cyclical nature of the cryptocurrency market, you can save this post as motivation when the “Bitcoin is dead” narrative becomes popular again.

Until then, click all the links in this section and start learning.

It’ll be a nice ride ahead!

🛡️ Secure your assets permanently – master self custody and hardware wallets 🔐

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Author

D. Petkovski

📓 The Author Husband & Father
Software Engineer StrengthCentric
₿itcoin Hodler Long-Term Investor
🌍 Everything Enthusiast 🔥 Optimist

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Conservative Predictions During Bear Markets

Price Predictions From 2016

Lessons There?

Takeaways

Author

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